What a Fed Rate Hike Means for Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve decision Wednesday to lift its benchmark short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point is likely to have a domino effect across the economy as it gradually pushes up rates for everything from mortgages and credit card rates to small business loans.

Consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are the most likely to be affected by a rate hike, says Greg McBride, chief analyst at Bankrate.com. He says it’s the cumulative effect that’s important, especially since the Fed already raised rates in December 2015 and December 2016.

“These interest rate hikes could add up to hundreds of dollars per month in extra fees for adjustable-rate mortgage and HELOC borrowers,” McBride says.

The Fed’s likely decision to lift the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight loans, will have several effects on consumers. Here's how it may impact mortgage rates:

Mortgages

The Fed’s key short-term rate affects mortgages and other long-term rates only indirectly.

Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates hit a 2017 high last week as the average jumped to 4.21% in anticipation of the Fed’s move Wednesday and another similar hike. That is up from a year ago when the average 30-year mortgage rate was 3.68%, according to Freddie Mac.

“For consumers currently shopping for a mortgage to purchase a property or refinance an existing loan,” says NerdWallet mortgage analyst Tim Manni, a Fed rate hike "shouldn’t feel like a real shock to the system since the rate move has already been 'baked' into the market.”

A third hike later this year could boost the rate by as much as another quarter-point or so, increasing the monthly mortgage payment on a $200,000 home by up to $30.

More on mortgage rates: 

Fed rate hike: What it means for mortgage rates

Adjustable-rate mortgages, by contrast, typically are modified annually.

“Borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages that are seeing their rates reset should brace for higher payments. Because most ARMs only adjust once per year, the next rate reset could be a doozy if it encompasses 2 or 3 Fed hikes in the interim,” McBride says.

Adjustable rates, he says, could rise about three-quarters of a percentage point in that period, increasing the monthly payment of the $200,000 mortgage by $84.

Other factors may loom large in addition to future Fed rate hikes that will determine the direction of mortgage rates moving forward. If Congress fails to approve President Trump’s fiscal stimulus, for example, long-term rates could fall regardless of the Fed, while a faster-growing economy and higher inflation could drive up borrowing costs faster.

Source: Bankrate.com and USA Today